Trump says "we don't need a deal with Iran" and pulls Vance off the talks; oil jumps

Three days ago, President Trump was talking about "positive momentum" toward ending the war with Iran. On Thursday, November 12, he changed course. "We don't need a deal with Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social shortly after 8 a.m. Eastern. "Those days have long since passed."

In the same post, he asked Vice President JD Vance, who had been leading the diplomacy with Tehran, to put his "complete and total attention" on what Trump described as crime and corruption in Democrat-run cities and states. The Washington Post reported that the president is dialing back diplomatic efforts with Iran and shutting down Vance's dealmaking effort. Oil prices jumped.

Here's what was actually said, and what it means.

What Trump said

• "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed."
• "We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" That's a reference to Iranian assets and to the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. Navy is enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports.
• In a radio interview later, Trump said it "would be a defeat" if Iran's current rulers are still in power when he leaves office, according to HNGN.

The post suggests the U.S. will keep the naval blockade in place and keep squeezing Iran's economy, rather than trade it away in a deal. The White House didn't say publicly that talks are over, and an administration official wouldn't say whether they had stopped, according to HNGN.

Why this is a turnaround

This came fast. On Monday, after meeting Qatar's prime minister, who has been carrying messages between the two sides, Trump said Iran "militarily, is effectively over" and that he saw "positive momentum toward an end to this conflict." We covered that here: Trump meets Qatar's leader on Iran talks, but no deal yet.

By Wednesday, news reports citing U.S. and Middle Eastern officials said Vance was considering direct talks with Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, possibly in Doha. No meeting was ever scheduled.

Tehran wasn't playing along either. Asked about meeting Vance, Rezaei said: "Absolutely not." The day before, he had said Iran won't let "even a single particle" of its enriched uranium leave the country, and that there are no negotiations with Washington. Iran's navy also claimed two more tankers hit mines near the strait on Thursday, a claim that couldn't be independently verified. More on the shipping attacks here: Iran says two more tankers are burning near Hormuz.

What each side wants

Washington says any deal has to deal with Iran's nuclear program first. Iran says it won't talk until the U.S. meets its seven conditions, including lifting the blockade. With Iran refusing to give up its enriched uranium and the president now saying he doesn't need a deal, the two sides look further apart than they did at the start of the week.

Qatar, the main mediator, has said it received positive responses from both sides but admits a deal is uncertain.

What it means for your wallet

This is where most Americans will feel it. Oil had fallen hard on hopes of a deal. Brent crude, the world benchmark, dropped below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August. After Trump's post, it reversed. Brent settled 3.3 percent higher on Thursday, near $96 a barrel, according to Bloomberg.

That matters at the pump. The U.S. average for regular gas has been falling for weeks and was $3.91 on Thursday, according to AAA. But gas prices follow oil with a delay of a week or two. If oil stays higher, that slide could stop, and prices could tick back up before Thanksgiving. Diesel, already over $6 a gallon, is even more sensitive to anything that happens around the Strait of Hormuz.

You can track gas, diesel and other prices every week on our Wallet Watch page.

The common-sense view

There's a case for the president's approach. The blockade is costing Iran dearly, and walking away from a bad deal can be better than signing one. Iran has also said no to talks, publicly and repeatedly. But there's a cost too: no deal means no reopened strait, and that keeps a risk premium on oil that every American pays at the pump. The question for the coming weeks is whether pressure alone can get Iran to move.

What to watch next

• Whether anyone replaces Vance as the point person for Iran, or the Qatar channel goes quiet.
• Oil prices over the next few days, and gas prices over the next two weeks.
• Any new attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz.